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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.