Dutch Polls: Major Parties and Main Issues in Early Election
Voters in the Holland are set to potentially replace the most conservative government in modern history with a more moderate and commonsense alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 29 October.
What's Happening and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were called after the collapse of the outgoing government in June, when rightwing figure Geert Wilders withdrew his party from an already unstable and largely ineffective governing alliance.
The PVV had finished shockingly first in the previous general election, and after extended negotiations formed a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the BBB party, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies considered him too controversial for the prime minister position, which was given to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has lived under police protection for two decades, began criticizing from the sidelines.
He ultimately triggered the government collapse on 3 June after his allies declined to implement a far-reaching comprehensive anti-immigration plan that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, turning back all asylum seekers, shutting down refugee hostels and repatriating all Syria nationals.
Although support for the PVV has decreased, surveys suggest the rightwing, Islam-critical party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. However, major Netherlands political parties have collectively rejected forming a government with Wilders.
At least sixteen political groups are predicted to gain representation, but no single party is projected to secure above about one-fifth of the vote. As usual, the future Netherlands administration, typically an influential player on the European and global scene, will be formed following coalition negotiations that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment
There are 150 representatives in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments for over 100 years.
Representatives are chosen every four years – earlier if administrations fail – through party-list system, based on an certified roster of candidates in a country-wide district: any party that wins less than 1% of the vote is assured of a seat.
Similar to much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been marked in recent decades by a significant drop in support for the traditional governing groups from the moderate right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from more than 80% in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
In the Netherlands, this trend has been accompanied by a spectacular proliferation of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Primary Concerns
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, projected to lose up to eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It advocates, among other measures, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the army to fight "street terrorists", and an termination to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are neck-and-neck behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the previous poll.
However, under its young leader, its promising new figure, who entered politics only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign highlighting the dire Dutch housing crisis and a promise of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a complete unification, is on track to secure comparable seats, according to polling averages.
Headed by the seasoned former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, it has made constructing additional housing its primary focus, and has controversially included a net migration cap of between forty to sixty thousand people annually in its manifesto.
Three other parties appear set to be important players in the new parliament.
The center-left D66 is projected to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its present nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a platform focused on housing (it plans to build 10 new cities) and an "personal minimum income" for recipients.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the ex-premier (now NATO leader), is forecast to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its leader, criticized of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decline. It is promising corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The populist, hardline conservative JA21 is a breakaway group from a different rightwing formation – the once popular, now scandal-hit FvD – and appears to be profiting from an exodus of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the two main rightwing parties, both other partners in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to decline, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns currently have been migration policy, with multiple – occasionally aggressive – demonstrations against planned emergency reception centres for refugee applicants, the cost of living, and the chronic Netherlands issue of accommodation (the nation is short of 400,000 homes).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Given the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are actually possible is equally significant as who wins the election (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
Following the vote, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores possible alliances. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, typically the head of the largest potential partner, begins discussing the government program. This can take months.
Various combinations look plausible, typically including a combination of parties from centre left and moderate right. The most probable, according to political analysts, include Christian Democrats and GreenLeft/Labour, plus Democrats 66 and one or more smaller parties potentially including the conservative party.
