🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime strugglers improving in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's facing five other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still