Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
